Die-casting zinc alloy exports in April reached a new high in the past decade! How will subsequent exports develop? [SMM Analysis]

SMM May 20 News:

       In April, China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy surged, with a MoM increase exceeding 450%, hitting a new high in nearly a decade. In contrast, imports saw relatively small changes. Below are the details.

       According to the latest customs data, in April, China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy exceeded 1,000 mt, reaching 1,280.23 mt, up 472.07% MoM and 365.08% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports of unwrought zinc alloy in China reached 2,188.97 mt, with a cumulative YoY increase of 101.32%. Meanwhile, in April, China's imports of unwrought zinc alloy were 3,772.12 mt, up 6.65% MoM and down 6.43% YoY. From January to April, cumulative imports reached 14,763.56 mt, with a cumulative YoY decrease of 0.76%.

       In terms of export destinations, the top three countries and regions for China's unwrought zinc alloy exports in April were Taiwan, China (1,085.55 mt), Vietnam (154.62 mt), and Bangladesh (30.85 mt), accounting for 84.70%, 12.06%, and 2.41% respectively.

       In terms of import sources, the top three countries for China's unwrought zinc alloy imports in April remained South Korea (1,369.36 mt), Japan (891.88 mt), and Australia (662.73 mt), accounting for 36.3%, 23.64%, and 17.57% respectively.

       From a specific data perspective, Taiwan, China, single-handedly boosted the overall growth in export volume in April. Why did China's exports of unwrought zinc alloy to Taiwan, China, increase significantly in April? SMM believes that the main reason for the increase in export volume is still related to tariffs.

       Firstly, we cannot rule out that the internal demand for die-casting zinc alloy in Taiwan, China, in April drove the increase in China's exports of die-casting zinc alloy in the same month. However, from the overall macro perspective in April, after multiple adjustments, the tariff amount imposed by the US on Chinese goods eventually reached 145%, while the tariff imposed on Taiwan, China, was only 34%. This gap provided certain export opportunities for enterprises, potentially driving the export of unwrought zinc alloy products to Taiwan, China. Furthermore, from the perspective of the RMB to TWD exchange rate, the continuous decline in the exchange rate in April may have facilitated the inflow of Chinese goods into Taiwan, China.

How will the export situation of China's die-casting zinc alloy develop in May?

       Firstly, from a macro perspective, the "Joint Statement of the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released on May 12, which includes content such as the US reducing the current tariffs imposed on Chinese products to 30%. This may provide certain opportunities for China's die-casting zinc alloy exports.

       Secondly, from the perspective of the RMB-US dollar exchange rate in May, the exchange rate rose slightly in May. Objectively speaking, this posed certain obstacles to China's exports of unwrought zinc alloys. However, influenced by the recent easing of tariffs and the improvement of macro sentiment, it is expected that the exports of unwrought zinc alloys in May will remain at a relatively high level in history. SMM will continue to monitor the import and export situation.

      (The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)

                                                                                          》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database